Carrier Global Corporation reported fourth‑quarter 2025 results that fell short of consensus estimates. Net sales declined 6% to $4.837 billion, while operating profit collapsed 87% to $101 million. Adjusted operating profit fell 33% to $455 million, a decline driven by a 38% drop in residential HVAC volumes and distributor destocking across the Americas.
GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations were $0.03, and adjusted EPS was $0.34, both below the consensus of $0.36. Revenue also missed the $5.04 billion estimate, falling 4% from the prior year’s $5.148 billion. In Q4 2024 Carrier posted net sales of $5.148 billion, GAAP EPS of –$0.05, and adjusted EPS of $0.54, underscoring the sharp reversal in performance.
Segment data show that Climate Solutions Americas sales dropped 17%, largely due to the residential decline, while Climate Solutions Europe sales grew 6% and Climate Solutions Transportation grew 13%. Commercial HVAC orders surged nearly 50% on data‑center wins, and aftermarket revenue continued its double‑digit growth trend, offsetting the residential weakness.
For the full year Carrier guided total sales of approximately $22 billion, a $350 million headwind from the pending Riello divestiture. Adjusted operating profit was projected at $3.4 billion and adjusted EPS at $2.80, with free cash flow expected to reach $2 billion. The guidance reflects a cautious outlook amid residential market challenges but confidence in commercial HVAC and aftermarket growth.
"We continue to drive outsized growth in commercial HVAC with Q4 orders up nearly 50% driven by key data‑center wins and are well positioned to drive our sixth consecutive year of double‑digit growth in this business in 2026. Our aftermarket playbook also continues to yield results, reflected in our fifth consecutive year of double‑digit growth. We continue to control the controllables, reducing discretionary costs and building backlog in our long‑cycle businesses to mitigate residential market challenges," said CEO David Gitlin.
Investors reacted negatively, citing earnings and revenue misses and weak guidance. The market’s response highlights concerns about the ongoing residential downturn and the impact of the Riello divestiture on short‑term revenue, while noting the company’s continued strength in commercial HVAC and aftermarket segments.
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