Cboe Global Markets announced a new prediction‑markets framework that adds a third payout tier—a defined “payout zone” that rewards traders with a partial return when they are directionally correct but not perfectly accurate. The framework moves beyond the traditional binary contracts that have dominated the market.
The first product under the new framework is a Mini‑S&P 500 index prediction‑market contract, slated to launch in the second quarter of 2026. The contract will use a standard options wrapper, settle in cash, and will be listed on the Cboe Options Exchange and centrally cleared by the Options Clearing Corporation.
Cboe’s strategy is to broaden participation in outcome‑based trading by offering a more nuanced risk‑reward profile for both retail and institutional traders. Rob Hocking, Global Head of Derivatives, said the platform “is a logical extension of Cboe’s existing strengths” and provides a “clear entry point for new customers.” CEO Craig Donohue added that the new contracts “capitalize on hundreds of thousands of spread SPX contracts that are trading every day in our market.” JJ Kinahan, Head of Retail Expansion, explained that the contracts “take the mechanics of a popular vertical spread and package them in an intuitive format for a broader audience.”
The launch comes at a time of record trading activity in Cboe’s core products. In February 2026, the exchange reported record average daily volumes in proprietary index options, including SPX and SPX 0‑day‑to‑expiration options. In Q4 2025, Cboe posted record net revenue and adjusted earnings, with net revenue up 17% year‑on‑year and derivatives revenue up 22% year‑on‑year, underscoring the strength of its underlying market infrastructure.
Regulatory clarity is also improving. The SEC and CFTC have been providing guidance on prediction markets, which is expected to increase investor confidence and facilitate the launch of new contracts on regulated exchanges.
The new Mini‑SPX contract represents a significant expansion of Cboe’s product suite, positioning the exchange to capture a growing demand for flexible derivatives products while leveraging its deep liquidity and regulatory infrastructure in the SPX market.
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