Canadian National Railway reported fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue of C$4,464 million, up 2% from C$4,384 million in Q4 2024, and full‑year revenue of C$17,304 million, a 2% increase over the previous year. Diluted earnings per share rose to C$2.03, beating the consensus estimate of C$1.43 by C$0.60, or 42%. Adjusted EPS of C$2.08 reflected a 14% year‑over‑year gain, driven by disciplined cost management and a favorable freight mix.
Segment analysis shows that grain and fertilizer shipments grew 4% in Q4, while petroleum and chemicals revenue increased 3%, supporting the overall revenue lift. Intermodal traffic also expanded, offsetting a modest decline in metals and minerals volumes. The company’s operating ratio fell to 61.2% in Q4 from 61.9% in the full year, indicating tighter cost control and higher utilization of its network.
Management attributed the earnings beat to a combination of higher freight volumes, improved asset utilization, and a 4% increase in revenue ton‑miles. CEO Tracy Robinson highlighted the company’s “productivity initiatives” and a reduced capital spend of C$2.8 billion for 2026, down nearly C$600 million from the prior year, which is expected to free cash flow for future growth.
Looking ahead, CNI guided for flat revenue ton‑miles in 2026, citing macro‑economic uncertainty and a new tariff that will reduce forest‑product revenue by an estimated C$350 million. The company maintains its full‑year EPS guidance, but signals caution about volume growth, suggesting that investors should weigh the strong operational performance against the expected headwinds.
Investors reacted to the earnings release with a muted response, focusing on the company’s flat volume outlook and tariff impacts rather than the earnings beat. The guidance indicates a cautious stance for 2026, reflecting management’s awareness of potential market constraints while maintaining confidence in operational efficiency.
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