ConocoPhillips and TotalEnergies announced an amendment to their existing 25‑year development agreement with Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) on January 24, 2026. The amendment expands the Waha concession, the largest oil field in Libya, and commits the partners to a $20 billion foreign‑financed investment that will lift production capacity to 850,000 barrels per day over the life of the contract.
The Waha concession, which already produces about 375,000 barrels per day, includes the Gialo, Samah, Dahra, and Bahi fields. ConocoPhillips and TotalEnergies each hold a 20.41% stake in the Waha Oil Company, while NOC retains a 59.18% majority. The amendment will focus on the North Gialo project (100,000 b/d) and the NC‑98 project (80,000 b/d), and will also fund infrastructure upgrades that will enable the full 850,000 b/d target.
The $20 billion commitment is spread across infrastructure modernization, production enhancement, and exploration activities. Over the 25‑year period, the partners will invest in new drilling rigs, pipeline upgrades, and digital monitoring systems, while also allocating capital to exploratory work that could uncover additional reserves within the Waha basin.
Strategically, the deal aligns with ConocoPhillips’ focus on low‑cost, low‑GHG intensity resources. Libya’s proven reserves—estimated at 48 billion barrels—are among the world’s lowest‑cost production assets, and the country’s political environment has stabilized enough to attract foreign investment. The agreement is expected to generate more than $376 billion in net revenues for Libya over 25 years, boosting the national economy and reinforcing the country’s position as a key supplier to European markets.
ConocoPhillips’ financial outlook frames the deal as a long‑term growth lever. The company is set to report its Q4 2025 earnings on February 5, 2026, with guidance for capital expenditures of roughly $12 billion. The new Libya investment is positioned as a disciplined capital allocation that complements the company’s existing portfolio and supports its goal of maintaining a strong balance sheet while pursuing high‑return projects.
Analysts have reacted to the announcement with a mix of optimism and caution. Raymond James raised its price target to $113 from $98, citing updated commodity strip estimates and improved operating cost assumptions. BofA Securities downgraded the stock to Underperform, citing concerns about high oil breakeven prices. Mizuho maintained an Outperform rating, noting ConocoPhillips’ free‑cash‑flow yield and stable dividend policy. The varied analyst actions reflect the market’s focus on cost structure, commodity price forecasts, and the company’s ability to generate cash in a volatile environment.
The content on EveryTicker is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. We are not financial advisors. Consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. Any actions you take based on information from this site are solely at your own risk.