Greenfire Resources Ltd. reported its 2025 year‑end reserves, production, and full‑year financial results, confirming a modest 1 % year‑over‑year increase in proved reserves after accounting for production. Proved (“1P”) reserves stood at 231.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMbbl) and proved plus probable (“2P”) reserves at 408.9 MMbbl, up from 229.5 MMbbl and 405.0 MMbbl in 2024, respectively.
Full‑year 2025 production averaged 16,169 barrels per day (bbl/d), slightly above the company’s guidance of 15,000‑16,000 bbl/d. Q4 2025 production was 15,699 bbl/d, a 1 % increase over the 15,600 bbl/d reported in Q4 2024. The uptick was driven by operational efficiencies at the Hangingstone Expansion Asset and a higher output mix from the Demo Asset, offsetting a decline in the Expansion Asset’s output due to a steam generator outage that was resolved before year‑end.
Capital expenditures for 2025 totaled $111.8 million, below the $130 million outlook. The shortfall was largely due to a $9 million deferral of Pad 7 spending, which will be accounted for in 2026. The company’s 2026 production guidance was lowered to 13,500‑15,500 bbl/d from a prior range of 15,500‑16,500 bbl/d, citing unplanned well downtime at the Expansion Asset and steeper‑than‑anticipated base‑production decline rates.
Adjusted funds flow for the year was $143.5 million, a decline from $171.9 million in 2024, while adjusted free cash flow stood at $31.7 million, down from $80.1 million in 2024. The reduction reflects higher operating costs and the capital‑expenditure shortfall, but the company maintained a healthy cash‑flow profile relative to its debt‑free balance sheet.
Operational highlights include the completion of the second steam generator refurbishment at the Hangingstone Expansion Asset and the full operationalization of sulphur‑removal facilities at the same asset, restoring compliance with regulatory limits. First oil from Pad 7 is expected in Q4 2026, and the company plans to pursue additional well‑pairs at Pad 5 and Pad 8 in 2027.
Greenfire completed a refinancing in December 2025 that eliminated all debt and left the company with an undrawn credit facility. The debt‑free status provides financial flexibility for future capital‑expenditure projects and reduces interest‑expense risk.
Headwinds for 2025 included unplanned well downtime at the Expansion Asset and higher‑than‑expected decline rates, which contributed to the lower 2026 production guidance. The company also faced temporary sulphur‑emission compliance issues, which were resolved with the new sulphur‑removal facilities.
Tailwinds include the successful refurbishment of the steam generator, the operationalization of sulphur‑removal facilities, the debt‑free balance sheet, and the undrawn credit facility. The completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project in May 2024 also positions Greenfire to benefit from improved heavy‑oil transport capacity.
The guidance cut signals management’s caution regarding near‑term production reliability and decline rates, but the company remains confident in its long‑term resource base and operational improvements. Investors are closely monitoring the company’s ability to maintain production levels and execute future well‑pairs.
Investors reacted to the lower 2026 production guidance, focusing on the operational challenges that prompted the cut while noting the company’s strong reserves, debt‑free status, and ongoing capital‑expenditure plans.
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