Indonesia’s transport regulator announced a new rule that cuts the maximum commission ride‑hailing platforms can charge drivers from 20 % to 8 %. The change, effective immediately on May 1 2026, is part of Presidential Regulation No. 27/2026 and is designed to raise drivers’ minimum earnings share from 80 % to at least 92 %.
Grab, Indonesia’s largest ride‑hailing operator, will see its per‑trip revenue share shrink by more than a third. Analysts estimate that the cap could reduce Grab’s 2026 EBITDA by 5‑10 %, forcing the company to either lift ride volume or adjust pricing to preserve margins. The commission cut also means Grab will need to re‑evaluate its incentive programs and cost structure in the country’s second‑largest market.
Grab’s recent financials provide context for the impact. In Q4 2025 the company reported revenue of $906 million, up 18.6 % year‑over‑year, and a full‑year 2025 revenue of $3.37 billion, a 20.49 % increase from 2024. The new cap will compress the margin on the segment that generated the bulk of that growth, adding pressure to Grab’s overall profitability profile.
Grab Indonesia CEO Neneng Goenadi said, "We respect Mr Prabowo's directive and will work with the government to ensure any policy protects drivers, while maintaining affordability for consumers and the sustainability of the industry." She added, "We will continue to coordinate and engage in open dialogue," and that "any regulatory shift could have broad implications for driver earnings, consumer pricing, and overall ecosystem sustainability." GoTo CEO Hans Patuwo added, "We will review the details and implications of Presidential Decree No. 27/2026 as we aim to fully understand the adjustments we need to make." He also mentioned that the company is "assessing the implications of the decree and will comply with government regulations while working with stakeholders, including driver‑partners and customers."
Investors have reacted cautiously to the announcement, with analysts noting that the regulatory headwind could weigh on Grab’s earnings outlook. Morgan Stanley has maintained an Overweight rating and a $6.40 price target, indicating that the market may still see upside potential despite the new cap. The regulatory shift also signals a broader push by the Indonesian government to formalize driver protections, including mandatory accident and health insurance, which could increase platform costs and alter the independent contractor model.
The commission cut is part of a larger effort to improve driver welfare and could accelerate Grab’s diversification strategy. The company has been expanding its financial services and advertising businesses, which may help offset the reduced ride‑hailing revenue. Additionally, the pressure on commissions could spur investment in automation, such as drone delivery and autonomous vehicle trials, and has fueled speculation about a potential merger between Grab and Gojek to consolidate market share and reduce regulatory exposure.
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