Warrior Met Coal reported fourth‑quarter 2025 results that included net income of $23.0 million and earnings per share of $0.44, a sharp rise from the $1.1 million net income and $0.02 EPS recorded in the same quarter of 2024. Revenue reached $384.0 million, up 29% from $297.5 million in Q4 2024, while sales volume climbed 53% to 2.9 million short tons. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter rose to $92.9 million, an increase of 74% from $53.2 million in Q4 2024, reflecting improved cost discipline and the early contribution of the Blue Creek long‑wall mine.
The company’s earnings per share of $0.44 fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.47, a miss of $0.03 or 6.4%. The miss was driven by lower average selling prices for steelmaking coal throughout 2025, which offset the volume‑led revenue growth. Revenue, however, beat the consensus estimate of $370.96 million by $13.04 million, a 3.5% lift, largely due to the record sales volume from Blue Creek and a favorable mix of higher‑priced coal products. Full‑year 2025 net income declined 77% to $57.0 million from $4.79 million in 2024, and EPS fell to $4.79 from $4.79 in 2024, underscoring the impact of lower commodity prices over the year.
Blue Creek’s early ramp‑up has been a key driver of the quarter’s performance. The mine’s long‑wall operation began eight months ahead of schedule, was completed on budget, and is already contributing to production and cost savings. The company’s cost discipline is evident in the 24% adjusted EBITDA margin for Q4 2025, up from 18% in Q4 2024, driven by the lower‑cost structure of Blue Creek and disciplined operating expenses.
For 2026, Warrior Met Coal projected coal sales of 12.5–13.5 million short tons and cash costs of $95–$110 per ton. The guidance reflects management’s confidence that Blue Creek will reach full production and that the company will maintain a low‑cost operating model, positioning it to capture upside as steelmaking demand recovers. The guidance also signals that the company expects to sustain higher volumes and cost advantages into the full year.
"Our team's disciplined execution in the fourth quarter and throughout 2025 delivered exceptional progress at Blue Creek. We are poised for a significant expansion in scale in 2026 as the early start of the Blue Creek longwall operation is already driving higher production, improved cost performance and record quarterly sales volumes," said CEO Walt Scheller. "Even in these early stages of production and sales, Blue Creek's contributions to our financial results are having a notable impact – which we expect will only increase as the mine continues to ramp up toward full production."
"Our fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $93 million was 31% higher than the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to the following factors. First, our sales volumes were 22% higher in the fourth quarter, including an increase of tons sold from Blue Creek," added CFO Dale Boyles.
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