Kaiser Aluminum Posts Record Q4 2025 Earnings, Beats Guidance but Faces Valuation Concerns

KALU
February 19, 2026

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation reported fourth‑quarter 2025 results that surpassed consensus estimates, with net sales of $929 million, up 21% year‑over‑year, and net income of $28 million, translating to $1.68 per diluted share. The company’s full‑year 2025 figures were equally strong, with $3.37 billion in sales, $113 million in net income, and $6.77 per diluted share. While the GAAP EPS beat analysts by $0.12, the adjusted EPS of $1.53 fell short of the $1.56 consensus, reflecting the impact of non‑recurring costs associated with the new roll‑coat line and Phase VII outage.

The company’s adjusted EBITDA reached a record $310 million for the year, a 21.3% margin that represents a 4.7‑percentage‑point lift over 2024. The margin expansion was driven by a shift toward higher‑margin coated packaging products and stronger pricing power, offsetting the cost impact of the new production line and the planned outage. The adjusted EPS miss, however, highlights the short‑term cost drag from these capital investments, even as revenue growth remains robust.

Segment performance varied across the company’s core markets. Aerospace revenue was pressured by destocking from commercial OEMs, while the packaging segment benefited from a ramp‑up of the new coating line, contributing to the mix shift toward higher‑margin products. General engineering and automotive segments maintained steady demand, supporting overall revenue growth. The mix shift toward coated packaging products was a key driver of the improved EBITDA margin, as these products command higher prices and lower material cost volatility.

CEO Keith A. Harvey emphasized the company’s disciplined execution, noting that “Metal pricing remained a favorable tailwind, and despite non‑recurring costs primarily associated with our new roll‑coat line and Phase VII planned outage, we delivered record full‑year adjusted EBITDA of $310 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin above 21%.” He added that the company entered 2026 with a solid foundation, clear visibility into end‑market demand, and the capacity to capture the benefits of recent investments while continuing to reduce manufacturing costs and deleverage the balance sheet.

Market reaction to the earnings was tempered by valuation concerns and analyst sentiment. Despite the strong results, the stock fell 7.62% in pre‑market trading, and analysts downgraded the company to “Hold” from “Buy.” The sequential decline in earnings from Q3 to Q4 and questions about margin sustainability contributed to investor caution, even as the company’s guidance for 2026—anticipating a 5%‑10% increase in conversion revenue and a 5%‑15% rise in adjusted EBITDA—signals confidence in continued growth.

The company’s outlook for 2026 remains positive, with management projecting a 5%‑10% improvement in conversion revenue and a 5%‑15% increase in adjusted EBITDA year‑over‑year. These guidance figures reflect confidence in operational execution and the benefits of new capacity, rather than reliance on metal price tailwinds. The company’s focus on cost reductions, strategic investments, and balance‑sheet deleveraging positions it well for sustained profitability in the coming years.

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