Mosaic Company reported fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 results that fell short of consensus expectations. Revenue for the quarter was $2.97 billion, about $240 million below the $3.21 billion estimate, while adjusted earnings per share were $0.22 versus the $0.48 consensus, a miss of roughly 54%. The company posted a GAAP loss of $1.64 per share and a net loss of $519 million for Q4, compared with a $169 million net income in the same quarter a year earlier. For the full year, Mosaic earned $541 million in net income, up from $175 million in 2024, but still below the $1.00 billion consensus for 2025.
The shortfall was driven by a combination of weak U.S. phosphate demand, soaring sulfur costs, and a build‑up of inventory that pressured cash flow. One‑time charges, including asset impairments at the Carlsbad phosphate plant and a significant tax reserve in Brazil, further eroded profitability. These headwinds compressed margins across the business, especially in the Phosphate segment where revenue declined year‑over‑year.
Segment performance varied. The Phosphate segment saw a decline in net sales, reflecting the demand weakness, while the Potash segment benefited from higher pricing and volume growth. Mosaic Fertilizantes was hit by impairments and margin compression, but the segment still reported improved operating earnings and adjusted EBITDA for the full year compared with 2024.
In its earnings call, President and CEO Bruce Bodine highlighted the company’s progress on cost and efficiency initiatives and the divestiture of non‑core assets. He noted that “deferred demand and higher raw material costs negatively impacted our year‑end results, but demand is expected to recover as we move toward the planting season.” Bodine also explained that the company is not providing full‑year 2026 Fertilizantes sales guidance due to uncertainty around production plans in Brazil, but he expects cash flow to improve progressively as the year unfolds.
Investors reacted negatively to the miss, with the stock falling in after‑hours trading. The primary driver of the market reaction was the significant earnings miss and revenue shortfall, which underscored concerns about profitability and the impact of high input costs and weak demand in the U.S. phosphate market.
Management’s outlook remains cautious. While the company expects demand to rebound in the spring planting season, it has not updated its full‑year 2026 guidance for the Fertilizantes segment. The guidance for the rest of 2026 remains unchanged, signaling uncertainty but also a belief that the company’s core Potash business and ongoing cost‑control measures will support future performance.
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