NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) has projected its first quarterly adjusted operating profit for the fourth quarter of 2025, with a non‑GAAP range of RMB 700 million to RMB 1.2 billion (US$100 million to US$172 million). The projection follows a RMB 5.5 billion loss in the same quarter of 2024, marking a dramatic turnaround.
The company also forecast a GAAP operating profit of roughly RMB 200 million to RMB 700 million (US$29 million to US$100 million) for Q4 2025. The guidance is based on unaudited interim results and reflects management’s confidence that the company’s cost‑control program and product mix will sustain profitability.
NIO’s Q3 2025 performance provides context for the outlook. In that quarter the company posted a gross profit of RMB 3.0 billion and a gross margin of 13.9%, a 30% reduction in the non‑GAAP operating loss compared with Q3 2024. The improvement is largely driven by the launch of the third‑generation ES8 in September 2025, which carries a gross margin of about 20% and contributed significantly to Q4 2025 deliveries of 124,807 vehicles, a 71.7% year‑over‑year increase.
Cost‑control measures have been a key driver of the projected turnaround. Management has reduced manufacturing overhead, streamlined supply‑chain costs, and accelerated the adoption of higher‑margin models. The favorable product mix, combined with a 38% share of full‑year 2025 deliveries occurring in Q4, has lifted vehicle margins and offset the impact of raw‑material price pressure.
Investors reacted positively to the guidance, with trading volume on February 5 reaching 120.4 million shares, roughly 148% above the three‑month average. Analysts noted that the first quarterly profit and the inclusion of a GAAP profit forecast signal a significant shift in NIO’s financial trajectory and reduce the long‑term cash‑burn narrative that has dominated the company’s history.
Looking ahead, NIO’s CEO William Li has reiterated the company’s goal of achieving full‑year profitability in 2026. Management emphasized continued focus on cost discipline and strategic investments in high‑return verticals, signaling confidence that the company can sustain the momentum generated by the new product mix and operational efficiencies.
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