Nutrien Ltd. reported fourth‑quarter 2025 results that fell short of analyst expectations, with diluted earnings per share of $0.83 versus a consensus estimate of $0.87, a miss of $0.04. The miss was driven by lower nitrogen sales volumes and a modest decline in retail earnings, while higher potash sales and a $600 million gain on the sale of its 50 percent stake in Profertil helped offset some of the pressure.
Revenue rose to $5.34 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $5.21 billion. The increase was largely powered by stronger demand in the potash and nitrogen segments, which offset a slight decline in the retail channel. Net earnings reached $580 million, up from $571 million a year earlier.
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter climbed to $1.28 billion, up from $1.05 billion in Q4 2024. The lift was supported by higher potash volumes and the Profertil sale, while the company incurred a one‑time charge related to its Brazil Margin Improvement Plan, a restructuring effort aimed at improving profitability in that market.
Management reiterated its 2026 guidance, maintaining outlooks for potash sales volumes of 14.1–14.8 million tonnes, nitrogen volumes, and retail adjusted EBITDA of $1.75–$1.95 billion. The guidance reflects confidence in the company’s core business and its ability to sustain growth despite the Q4 earnings miss.
Ken Seitz, Nutrien’s President and CEO, said, “Closing the sale of our equity stake in Profertil demonstrates continued progress toward simplifying our portfolio, enhancing earnings quality, and improving cash conversion.” He added, “We intend to allocate the proceeds toward capital allocation priorities that support our ability to grow free cash flow per share over the long term, including targeted growth investments, share repurchases and debt reduction.”
During the earnings call, management noted that “Reliability improvements and a strong commercial footprint enabled us to deliver within our guidance range, despite lower North American demand in the fourth quarter.” They also highlighted that “Our downstream retail adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.74 billion through decisive cost reductions, strong proprietary margins, and solid execution of our Brazil Margin Improvement Plan.”
Market reaction to the results was muted, with the stock falling 0.87 % in pre‑market trading and 0.4 % after hours, reflecting investor focus on the EPS miss despite the revenue beat.
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