Pembina Pipeline Corporation released its fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 financial results, reporting a fourth‑quarter revenue of CAD 1.91 billion and a full‑year revenue of CAD 1.91 billion, both exceeding analyst expectations of CAD 1.60 billion by 19.4%. The company’s earnings per share of CAD 0.78 beat the consensus estimate of CAD 0.54, a $0.24 or 44.4% beat, while quarterly earnings of CAD 489 million fell from CAD 572 million in the same period a year earlier.
In the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA declined 14% to CAD 1.075 billion from CAD 1.254 billion in Q4 2024, reflecting a 232 million drop in revenue and a 244 million decline in net revenue, which was not disclosed in the release. Operating cash flow fell to CAD 731 million from CAD 902 million, a decrease of CAD 171 million, while capital expenditures were CAD 235 million, slightly lower than CAD 242 million a year earlier. The decline in revenue was driven by narrower NGL frac spreads and lower realized gains on crude‑oil derivatives, while higher volumes in the pipelines and facilities divisions helped offset some of the pressure.
For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was CAD 4.289 billion, down CAD 119 million from CAD 4.408 billion in 2024, and earnings totaled CAD 1.694 billion, a decline of CAD 180 million from CAD 1.874 billion. Operating cash flow rose to CAD 3.301 billion, an increase of CAD 87 million, and capital expenditures were CAD 784 million, down CAD 171 million from CAD 955 million. The company’s full‑year revenue of CAD 1.91 billion was 3% higher than the previous year, driven by record volumes across its pipeline and facilities divisions.
Management guided for 2026 adjusted EBITDA of CAD 4.125 billion to CAD 4.425 billion, a range that signals confidence in continued profitability amid ongoing investments. Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to remain in the CAD 700‑to‑800 million range, supporting the company’s pipeline expansion projects totaling CAD 425 million and the Cedar LNG project. Operating cash flow is projected to remain strong, with the company targeting free cash flow generation in 2027.
CEO Scott Burrows said, "This milestone reflects strong collaboration with both Indigenous and local communities built on trust and open engagement. It also reflects strong engagement with the Government of British Columbia and the BC Energy Regulator, whose guidance and regulatory oversight have helped establish a clear and responsible path forward for this project and for sustainable development in the region in the future."
The results illustrate a company navigating a challenging market environment. While revenue and earnings fell year‑over‑year, the EPS beat and revenue beat demonstrate effective cost control and a favorable mix of higher‑margin pipeline and facilities volumes. Narrower NGL spreads and lower derivative gains represent headwinds, but the company’s continued investment in pipeline expansions and the Cedar LNG project positions it to capture future growth. The guidance for 2026 indicates management’s confidence in maintaining profitability while pursuing strategic capacity additions, suggesting a positive trajectory for long‑term value creation.
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