Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 results that ended December 31 2025, with revenue of $334.81 million and earnings per share of $0.80. The quarter’s revenue was 20 % higher than the $279.39 million earned in Q4 2024, while the company’s GAAP net income rose from a $237.92 million loss to a $34.3 million profit, marking a dramatic turnaround in profitability.
Revenue fell short of consensus estimates of $348.75 million, a miss of roughly $14 million or 4 %. Management attributed the shortfall to a strategic pullback from higher‑risk credit segments that reduced volume by an estimated $1.5 billion in annualized terms. The company also faced macro‑economic headwinds that dampened demand for certain loan products, offsetting gains in its core personal‑loan and auto‑loan segments.
Despite the revenue miss, Pagaya’s EPS beat analyst expectations by $0.45, a 128 % surprise over the $0.35 consensus estimate. The beat was driven by disciplined cost management and improved operating leverage, which lifted the adjusted EBITDA margin to 76 % year‑over‑year. The company’s focus on high‑margin product lines and tighter expense controls helped offset the revenue decline and produced a net income that exceeded expectations.
For the first quarter of 2026, Pagaya guided revenue to a range of $315 million to $335 million, below the consensus of $344 million. The company also projected full‑year 2026 revenue between $1.4 billion and $1.575 billion, again below analyst forecasts. The cautious outlook signals management’s concern about near‑term macro conditions and a deliberate shift toward risk‑disciplined growth, even as it maintains confidence in sustaining profitability through cost discipline.
Investors reacted negatively to the earnings release, citing the revenue miss and the conservative guidance as primary concerns. The market’s response underscored a preference for top‑line growth over profitability metrics in the current environment.
"2025 was a hallmark year for Pagaya,” said CEO Gal Krubiner. “We achieved $34 million of GAAP net income and $80 million in operating cash flow, and we are now on a trajectory to sustain profitability while managing risk.”
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