TransAlta Corporation reported a loss of $0.22 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, a decline from the $0.05 consensus estimate and a loss of $0.22 in the same quarter of 2024. Revenue fell to $599 million, down from $678 million in Q4 2024, while free cash flow exceeded the midpoint of the company’s 2025 outlook. Management guided for 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $950 million to $1,050 million and free cash flow of $350 million to $450 million, signaling confidence in the company’s long‑term cash‑generating capacity.
The earnings miss was driven by softer Alberta power prices, subdued market volatility, and lower merchant production, all of which compressed margins. The company’s hedging strategy and contracted portfolio helped mitigate the impact, but the decline in revenue and the loss per share reflect the challenging market environment for power generation in the region.
The dividend was increased by eight percent to $0.28 per share on an annualized basis, the seventh consecutive annual increase. “We are pleased to announce that our Board of Directors has approved an eight per cent increase to our common share dividend, now equivalent to $0.28 per share on an annualized basis,” said CEO John Kousinioris.
TransAlta also announced a memorandum of understanding with Canada Pension Plan Investments and Brookfield to advance a data‑center development at its Keephills site in Parkland County. The agreement includes an initial long‑term power purchase agreement for approximately 230 MW and the potential to scale up to 1 GW of load, subject to regulatory approvals and definitive agreements. “The Keephills site provides a strategic platform that leverages TransAlta's large zoned land position, existing transmission, natural gas and water infrastructure, as well as on-site generation to support long‑term project scale,” said Kousinioris.
On February 2, 2026, TransAlta closed its acquisition of Far North Power Corporation for $95 million, adding 310 MW of natural‑gas‑fired capacity in Ontario. “We also recently closed the acquisition of Far North which enhances our position in Ontario,” said CFO Joel Hunter.
Management emphasized that the company is entering 2026 with a growing and diversified fleet underpinned by long‑term contracts and strong hedging positions. “Our guidance incorporates a balanced view of our fleet's expected generation as well as Alberta power market fundamentals, which we expect to markedly improve as expected data centre load growth comes online in the coming years,” said Hunter. The company will discuss its long‑term outlook and strategy at its Investor Day scheduled for March 23, 2026.
The company’s strategic initiatives—diversifying into data‑center power supply and expanding its Ontario footprint—are designed to offset the short‑term headwinds in the Alberta market and position TransAlta for sustainable growth in the evolving energy landscape.
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