TotalEnergies has halted or is in the process of halting production in its Qatar, Iraq and United Arab Emirates offshore fields, a move that removes about 15 % of the company’s total output. Onshore production in the UAE, which accounts for roughly 210,000 barrels per day, remains unaffected.
The shutdown follows a sharp escalation in the region’s geopolitical tensions, driven by the broader conflict involving Iran and the United States‑Israel front. The company’s decision reflects the immediate security risks that have disrupted operations and supply chains across its Middle East portfolio.
The outage cuts roughly 10 % of TotalEnergies’ upstream cash flow, a figure that the company said could be offset if Brent crude prices rise by $8 per barrel to $60 per barrel. Growth for 2026 is expected to come mainly from operations outside the Middle East, while the Satorp refinery continues to supply the Saudi domestic market and the impact on LNG trading from the Qatar shutdown is limited to about 2 million tonnes in 2026.
"With cash flow stable at $7.2 billion, TotalEnergies once again demonstrates its ability to offset lower hydrocarbon prices thanks to accretive growth in its Upstream production of 3.9 % in 2025, exceeding the guidance of above 3 %," said CEO Patrick Pouyanné. "An $8 per barrel increase in the Brent price is enough to offset the expected 2026 cash flow from operations from our Iraq, UAE offshore and Qatar assets at $60 per barrel," the company added. It also noted that its growth in 2026 will come predominantly from operations outside the Middle East.
JPMorgan upgraded TotalEnergies to Overweight from Neutral, raising its price target and citing the shutdown as a “tail‑risk scenario becoming reality.” The upgrade reflects confidence in the company’s ability to manage the short‑term disruption while maintaining long‑term growth prospects.
The company continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates if material changes occur.
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