YPF Sociedad Anónima released its Q4 2025 earnings on February 27 2026, reporting a net loss of $1.67 per share and revenue of $4.556 billion. The loss missed consensus estimates of $0.59 per share, while revenue fell short of the $4.528 billion estimate, though it beat other forecasts that placed revenue above $4.5 billion.
The result follows a Q3 2025 loss of $0.53 per share and a Q4 2024 loss of $0.74 per share. Revenue declined 4 % year‑over‑year from $4.751 billion in Q4 2024, reflecting lower commodity prices and higher operating costs, including a $1.042 billion income‑tax charge related to the Tax Normalization Plan.
Despite the net loss, YPF posted a record adjusted EBITDA of $5.0 billion for 2025, an 8 % increase from the previous year, and Q4 adjusted EBITDA of nearly $1.3 billion, a 53 % internal growth quarter‑over‑quarter. Free cash flow was positive at $261 million, underscoring operational resilience.
Shale oil production grew 35 % to 165,000 barrels per day in 2025, with a 42 % year‑over‑year jump to 196,000 barrels per day in Q4. CEO Horacio Marín said, “We are committed to becoming a leading shale integrating company and a significant shale exporter in the coming years.” He added, “This is the key year… Because it’s the final year of our transition – and then we can lift off.” The company targets 215,000 barrels per day in 2026 and expects to exit the year at 250,000 barrels per day.
Management reiterated a net‑loss outlook for 2026 but guided for adjusted EBITDA of $5.8 – $6.2 billion, capital expenditures of $5.5 – $5.8 billion, and a net leverage ratio of 1.6 – 1.7×. Lifting costs fell 44 % to below $8 per barrel of oil equivalent, supporting the company’s long‑term margin expansion plan.
The earnings miss is largely attributable to one‑time restructuring charges and the tax‑normalization charge, while the underlying operating performance—record EBITDA, strong shale output, and positive cash flow—indicates that the company’s strategic shift toward a pure‑shale model is progressing, though investors remain focused on the pace of cost reductions and the timing of the transition.
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