The AES Corporation (AES)

Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• The AI Power Imperative: AES has quietly built the largest renewables portfolio dedicated to data centers, with 8.2 GW of agreements and a 4 GW backlog, positioning it as the essential infrastructure provider for the AI revolution's most critical input: reliable, clean electricity.

• Self-Funding Transformation: Through strategic divestitures of non-core assets (AES Brasil, Ohio minority stake, AGIC insurance), AES has created a capital-efficient growth engine that requires no equity issuance through 2027, funding a 19-21% renewables EBITDA CAGR while de-risking from currency and hydrology volatility.

• Utility-Scale Execution Moat: Unlike pure-play developers, AES brings 40+ years of utility operations expertise and international project execution, enabling it to deliver 1 GW solar-plus-storage projects like Bellefield 1 on time and budget—a capability data center customers value above all else.

• Valuation Disconnect: Trading at 9.2x earnings with a 5.05% dividend yield, AES trades at a 50-60% discount to utility peers despite superior growth prospects, reflecting market skepticism that management's portfolio optimization and data center strategy have permanently transformed the earnings profile.

• Critical Execution Phase: The next 18 months will determine whether AES can convert its 11.1 GW backlog into operational cash flows while navigating policy headwinds, with $400 million of run-rate EBITDA beyond 2027 hanging on flawless project delivery and sustained data center demand.

Setting the Scene: The AI Revolution's Power Broker

The AES Corporation, originally incorporated as Applied Energy Services in 1981 and headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, has spent four decades evolving from a conventional power generator into something far more strategic: the essential infrastructure partner for the AI economy's most voracious energy consumers. While the market fixates on GPU shortages and model parameters, AES has been solving the real constraint on AI scaling—access to gigawatts of reliable, clean power with sub-four-year lead times.

The industry structure has fundamentally shifted. Data centers, representing less than 10% of their total lifetime cost structure for owners, are projected to drive over 20% of U.S. electricity demand growth by 2025. The U.S. grid needs 600 terawatt-hours of additional power by decade's end, equivalent to adding another ERCOT. Traditional utilities, bound by regulatory lag and fossil fuel dependencies, cannot move fast enough. Pure-play renewable developers lack the balance sheet and execution scale to deliver utility-grade projects. This creates a vacuum that AES's unique hybrid model—combining 2.7 million utility customers with 16.2 GW of global renewables—was built to fill.

AES sits at the intersection of three irreversible trends: the AI-driven data center boom, the energy transition, and the reshoring of critical manufacturing. Its competitive positioning stems from a strategic pivot that began in 2016 with the sale of its Brazilian distribution business, Sul, which freed capital and management attention for a relentless focus on scalable, contracted clean energy. The subsequent sale of AES Brasil's 5.2 GW renewables portfolio in 2024, while seemingly counterintuitive, eliminated exposure to hydrology risk, currency volatility, and floating-rate debt—creating a more predictable earnings stream that institutional investors demand.

Technology, Products, and Strategic Differentiation

AES's technology moat isn't a single breakthrough but a portfolio of capabilities that collectively reduce project risk and accelerate deployment. The Maximo robotic solar installation system , currently in beta testing, delivers 2-3x faster construction speeds while enabling 18-hour workdays in desert conditions. This matters because data center customers measure value in months-to-power, not just levelized cost. A project completed six months early means revenue recognition begins sooner and the customer can commission servers faster—creating pricing power that transcends traditional PPA auctions.

Fluence (FLNC), AES's energy storage joint venture, provides the firm with proprietary grid-scale battery technology that underpins its 7.5 GW U.S. backlog. With 35% of the pipeline dedicated to energy storage and tax credits secured through 2033, AES can offer data centers the firm capacity and grid services they need to meet uptime requirements. The 200 MW Pike County Energy Storage project in Indiana, the largest operational battery in MISO, demonstrates AES's ability to navigate interconnection complexity at scale—a skill smaller developers lack.

Uplight, the Schneider Electric (SBGSY) partnership focused on customer energy management, creates a secondary revenue stream while providing data on load patterns that informs AES's development pipeline. This data advantage allows AES to site new projects where grid capacity exists, avoiding the multi-year interconnection queues that plague competitors. The development transfer agreement (DTA) signed with a major data center customer to provide powered land adjacent to existing projects represents a new business model—monetizing development expertise without requiring AES equity.

Financial Performance & Segment Dynamics

The Renewables SBU's 46% Adjusted EBITDA growth year-to-date, reaching $697 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, validates the thesis that AES has reached an inflection point. This isn't project-level success; it's portfolio-scale economics kicking in. Management expects over 60% full-year growth, driven by the 6.6 GW of projects brought online in 2023-2024 maturing into their contracted cash flows. The 19-21% CAGR guidance through 2027 reflects not just backlog execution but increasing project scale—the average project size has grown 50% in five years, creating procurement and construction economies that smaller competitors cannot match.

The Utilities SBU provides the stable foundation that makes the renewables growth possible. With $659 million in Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, up 6% year-over-year, AES Indiana and AES Ohio generate predictable cash flows that support the parent company's investment-grade rating. The 11% annualized rate base growth from 2023-2027, driven by $1.4 billion in annual investment across distribution hardening, smart grid deployment, and transmission build-out for data centers, creates a regulated earnings stream that de-risks the overall enterprise. The sale of a 30% stake in AES Ohio to CDPQ for $544 million in April 2025, while reducing near-term EBITDA, strengthened the balance sheet and funded growth without diluting common shareholders.

The Energy Infrastructure SBU's 15% EBITDA decline year-to-date masks a strategic repositioning. The retention of select coal assets beyond 2027, representing less than 8% of capacity but contributing meaningful EBITDA, provides cash flow to fund renewables construction during the critical 2025-2027 period. The 670 MW combined-cycle gas plant completed in Panama in Q4 2024 increases utilization of the existing LNG terminal, creating a hedge against renewable intermittency while serving growing Central American demand. This "all-of-the-above" strategy, while environmentally controversial, ensures AES can serve customers who require firm capacity, maintaining optionality as the grid evolves.

Corporate overhead reduction has been dramatic. General and administrative expenses fell 19% in Q3 and 13% year-to-date, with the $150 million cost savings target for 2025 already achieved and a $300 million annual run rate expected by 2026. This isn't temporary cost-cutting; it's permanent structural efficiency from right-sizing the development organization. The AGIC insurance sale, while reducing EBITDA by $25-30 million annually, generated $450 million in proceeds—effectively low-cost equity financing that strengthens the balance sheet without dilution.

Outlook, Management Guidance, and Execution Risk

Management's reaffirmed 2025 guidance—Adjusted EBITDA of $2.65-2.85 billion and Adjusted EPS of $2.10-2.26—appears conservative given the 46% renewables EBITDA growth already achieved. The key assumption is flawless execution of the 11.1 GW backlog, with 5 GW under construction and 4.8 GW expected online through 2027. The $400 million of incremental run-rate EBITDA beyond 2027, which requires no additional PPA signings, represents the earnings power that the market has yet to price.

The 2026 acceleration to "low-teens" EBITDA growth hinges on two factors: the drag from asset sales and coal retirements diminishing, and the renewables segment maintaining its 50%+ growth trajectory. This appears achievable. The 7.5 GW U.S. backlog is fully safe-harbored, protecting tax credits through 2030. The 3-4 GW of additional projects that can be safe-harbored by July 4, 2026, provides a pipeline extension that competitors scrambling to source domestic equipment cannot replicate.

Data center demand shows no signs of abating. AES has signed 2.2 GW of new PPAs year-to-date, with 1.6 GW specifically from data center customers. The company is in advanced negotiations for an additional 1.8 GW before year-end, suggesting the 4 GW annual target is achievable. The Bellefield 1 project, a 1 GW solar-plus-storage facility contracted with Amazon (AMZN) and virtually complete for summer 2025 commissioning, demonstrates AES's ability to deliver the scale hyperscalers require.

The primary execution risk lies in supply chain management. While AES has largely diversified away from Chinese suppliers—importing all 2025 solar panels and contracting U.S. or Korean batteries for 2026-2027—tariffs on steel, aluminum, and potentially polysilicon could increase costs by 5-10% on future projects. Management's guidance assumes these costs can be passed through in PPA pricing, but competitive pressure from developers with lower-cost international supply chains could compress margins.

Risks and Asymmetries

The 2025 Act's revision of renewable energy tax credits presents a binary risk. Projects starting construction within 12 months of enactment qualify for 100% credits if placed in service within four years; those starting later must be online by 2027. AES's 7.5 GW safe-harbored backlog is protected, but the 3-4 GW pipeline extension depends on timely construction starts. If Treasury's forthcoming guidance on Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC) restrictions is more stringent than expected, it could disqualify equipment already procured, creating a $100-200 million EBITDA headwind.

Argentina's electricity market deregulation, while potentially creating long-term opportunities, introduces near-term volatility. Resolution 40025, effective November 2025, fundamentally restructures the wholesale market, but AES cannot yet estimate the financial impact on its 1.2 GW of local assets. The macroeconomic instability that necessitated an IMF program in April 2025 could lead to currency devaluation or payment delays, directly impacting international segment cash flows.

The decision to retain select coal assets beyond 2027, while financially rational, creates ESG headwinds that could limit institutional investment. These assets represent less than 8% of capacity but contribute roughly one-third of the previously guided $750 million coal EBITDA roll-off. If carbon regulations tighten or corporate customers accelerate their own coal exit timelines, AES could face stranded asset write-downs of $200-300 million.

On the positive side, the data center DTA model could unlock significant value. If AES can monetize its development pipeline through land sales rather than project ownership, it could generate $500-700 million in proceeds while retaining O&M contracts, improving returns on equity by 200-300 basis points. This represents an underappreciated optionality that could drive multiple expansion.

Competitive Context and Positioning

AES competes in a bifurcated market. Against pure-play renewables developers like Ormat (ORA) or First Solar (FSLR), AES's utility-scale execution and balance sheet provide a decisive edge. The 1 GW Bellefield project would strain the capacity of most developers; AES delivered it within budget while simultaneously constructing the largest battery in MISO. This execution credibility is why data center customers, who cannot tolerate delays, pay premium PPA rates to AES.

Against integrated utilities like NextEra Energy (NEE), Duke Energy (DUK), Southern Company (SO), and Dominion Energy (D), AES's international diversification is both advantage and liability. NEE's 26.5x P/E and 24.7% profit margins reflect a pure-play U.S. renewables strategy that avoids currency and regulatory volatility. AES's 9.2x P/E and 8.7% profit margins embed a risk discount for its global operations. However, NEE cannot replicate AES's Latin American project pipeline, where solar panels cost one-third of U.S. prices and mining customers provide 15-20 year contracts without subsidy risk.

The competitive moat is execution at scale. While NEE, DUK, and SO debate interconnection queue reform, AES is completing projects. While competitors face four-year waits for gas turbines, AES's renewables offer sub-three-year timelines. The Maximo robotics technology, if commercialized in 2027, could reduce construction costs by 15-20%, creating a cost advantage that pure-play developers cannot match.

Valuation Context

At $13.98 per share, AES trades at 9.2x trailing earnings, a 5.05% dividend yield, and 12.5x EV/EBITDA. This represents a 50-60% discount to utility peers: NextEra at 26.5x earnings, Duke at 18.5x, Southern at 21.6x, and Dominion at 19.25x. The discount reflects three concerns: debt-to-equity of 3.03x versus peer averages of 1.4-1.9x, profit margins of 8.7% versus peer averages of 15-25%, and exposure to international regulatory risk.

However, the valuation metrics ignore the transformation in earnings quality. The Renewables SBU's 46% EBITDA growth commands a premium multiple, yet it's buried within a conglomerate trading at utility valuations. If the market valued the 16.2 GW renewables portfolio at the 18-20x EBITDA multiples typical of pure-play developers, it would imply a sum-of-the-parts valuation 40-60% above the current trading price.

The 5.05% dividend yield, with a 46% payout ratio, appears sustainable given the $1.15-1.25 billion parent free cash flow guidance for 2025. This yield exceeds all major peers except Dominion, providing downside protection while investors wait for the data center story to crystallize. The $1.65 billion parent liquidity and self-funding through 2027 eliminate near-term equity dilution risk, a key differentiator from growth-stage renewables developers that regularly tap capital markets.

Conclusion

AES has engineered a strategic transformation that the market has yet to recognize. By divesting volatile international assets, retaining cash-generating coal plants, and focusing its development machine on data center customers, the company has created a self-funding growth vehicle that can deliver 19-21% renewables EBITDA growth without equity dilution. The 11.1 GW backlog, dominated by hyperscaler PPAs, provides line-of-sight to $400 million of incremental run-rate EBITDA beyond 2027.

The central thesis hinges on whether AES can maintain its execution edge as project scale increases and policy headwinds intensify. The next 18 months will test whether the Maximo robotics technology can deliver promised cost savings, whether the 4 GW of data center backlog can be commissioned on schedule, and whether management can navigate the 2025 Act's evolving tax credit rules. If successful, the valuation gap with pure-play peers should close, rewarding patient investors with both yield and capital appreciation. If execution falters, the high debt load and retained coal exposure could pressure the dividend and erode the investment case. The story is binary, but the odds favor the operator with the most data center experience and the clearest path to scaled clean energy delivery.