American Express Company (AXP)

Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Premium Pricing Power Meets Generational Shift: American Express has engineered 17% annual net card fee growth since 2019 by capturing Millennial and Gen-Z consumers who now represent 36% of total spend with credit metrics nearly 40% better than industry averages for older cohorts, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of affluent customer acquisition and retention that competitors cannot easily replicate.

• International Expansion as the Primary Growth Engine: International Card Services delivered 14% FX-adjusted growth in Q3 2025 while holding just 6% spend share across its top five markets, representing a multi-decade runway for expansion as merchant acceptance reaches 80% coverage in key countries and the company leverages its premium brand in underpenetrated affluent segments globally.

• Closed-Loop Network Moat Strengthening Through Scale: The merchant network has grown nearly fivefold since 2017, with Amex cardholders spending nearly three times more annually than other networks, creating powerful two-sided network effects that increase switching costs for card members while providing merchants access to a high-value customer base that justifies premium discount rates.

• Expense Leverage Driving Mid-Teens EPS Growth: Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue have compressed from 25% in 2023 to 21% in Q2 2025, while the company maintains a 33.94% return on equity and returns over 100% of net income to shareholders, demonstrating that disciplined cost management can coexist with strategic investment in product refreshes and technology.

• Best-in-Class Credit Quality as a Hidden Asset: Delinquency rates for low-tenure card members remain 30% below 2019 levels, provisions are decreasing despite loan growth, and the company's "bifurcated" premium customer base insulates it from broader economic stress, allowing management to maintain aggressive capital returns while peers build reserves.

Setting the Scene: The Premium Payments Oligopoly

American Express Company, founded in 1850 as a freight delivery business using horses and wagons, has spent 175 years evolving toward its current incarnation as a global premium financial and lifestyle brand powered by a closed-loop payments network. Headquartered in New York, the company operates a fundamentally different model than open-loop networks like Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA), issuing its own cards, managing customer relationships directly, and processing transactions through its proprietary network. This integration creates a data-rich ecosystem where every swipe informs product development, risk management, and merchant partnerships.

The payments industry has consolidated into an oligopoly where scale creates defensible moats, but American Express has carved out a distinct niche by focusing on the affluent consumer and commercial segments that generate higher revenue per transaction. While Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) process trillions in volume across the entire credit spectrum, Amex captures disproportionate value from a smaller base, with its cardholders spending nearly three times more annually than the average card on competing networks. This positioning has become increasingly valuable as the industry shifts from transaction processing to lifestyle integration, where data analytics and customer experience determine loyalty.

The competitive landscape has intensified over the past decade, particularly in premium cards where Chase (JPM) Sapphire and Capital One (COF) Venture X have challenged Amex's dominance. Yet the company has responded not by competing on price but by deepening its value proposition through over 200 product refreshes since 2019, including three U.S. Platinum Card updates in the past decade. This strategy reflects a core insight: affluent consumers, particularly Millennials and Gen-Z, increasingly value experiences, access, and service over simple cash-back rewards, creating an opportunity for Amex to command premium pricing while expanding its addressable market.

The Premium Flywheel: Strategic Differentiation Through Product Velocity

American Express's competitive advantage centers on a product refresh cycle that systematically enhances value propositions across its portfolio, driving both new customer acquisition and existing cardholder engagement. The company refreshed over 40 products globally in 2024, including the U.S. Consumer Gold Card and Delta (DAL) Co-Brand cards, and plans to maintain a pace of 35-50 annual refreshes indefinitely. Each refresh creates a catalyst for card fee increases and higher customer engagement, with the Q3 2025 Platinum Card refresh generating new account acquisitions at twice pre-refresh levels and over 500,000 requests for the new mirror card within three weeks.

The generational shift in Amex's customer base amplifies this strategy's impact. Millennial and Gen-Z card members now drive the highest billed business growth, with Gen-Z spend growing around 40% from a smaller base and Millennials representing over 60% of new consumer accounts acquired globally in Q1 2025. These cohorts demonstrate credit metrics nearly 40% better than industry averages for older age groups, and their delinquency rates are 30% lower than comparable low-tenure customers from 2019. Amex is not merely acquiring younger customers but is selectively penetrating the most creditworthy segments of these generations, creating a customer base that will grow in affluence and loyalty over decades.

The closed-loop network architecture transforms these customer insights into merchant value. Since 2017, Amex has expanded its merchant acceptance nearly fivefold, reaching 80% coverage across its top 12 international countries in 2024. This expansion eliminates a historical friction point that limited card usage, particularly among younger consumers who expect universal acceptance. More importantly, it provides merchants with access to a customer base that spends nearly three times more annually than other networks, justifying Amex's premium discount rates and creating a self-reinforcing cycle where broader acceptance drives more spending, which attracts more merchants.

Financial Performance: Evidence of Flywheel Acceleration

Third quarter 2025 results demonstrate the financial manifestation of Amex's strategic flywheel, with total revenues net of interest expense increasing 11% year-over-year to $18.4 billion and net income rising 16% to $2.9 billion. The revenue mix reveals the durability of the premium model: discount revenue grew 7%, net card fees increased 19%, and net interest income expanded 12%, showing balanced growth across all three revenue pillars. This proves Amex is not dependent on any single driver; the company can grow through spending volume, pricing power, and lending expansion simultaneously.

Segment performance validates the international growth thesis. International Card Services delivered 14% revenue growth (13% FX-adjusted) with billed business up 14%, while U.S. Consumer Services grew 11% and Commercial Services grew 7%. The ICS segment's pretax income declined 3% in Q3 due to higher investments in marketing and rewards, but this reflects deliberate spending to capture share in markets where Amex holds just 6% spend share.

Management is sacrificing near-term margin for long-term market position in what could become the company's largest growth engine, a trade-off that makes sense given the 10-percentage-point increase in merchant coverage over three years.

Expense leverage has emerged as a critical driver of earnings power. Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue fell from 25% in 2023 to 21% in Q2 2025, while the company simultaneously invested in enterprise risk management and technology infrastructure. This compression occurred despite variable customer engagement expenses growing slightly faster than revenues due to enhanced Platinum benefits and portfolio premiumization. Amex has achieved operating leverage while increasing value proposition investments, suggesting the cost structure has permanent scalability that will amplify earnings growth as revenue continues to expand.

Capital Allocation: The ROE Engine

American Express's return on equity of 33.94% on a trailing twelve-month basis, reaching 36% in Q2 2025, reflects a capital-light model within a regulated banking framework. The company maintains its Common Equity Tier 1 ratio at 10.5%, squarely within its 10-11% target range, while returning 101% of net income to shareholders through $2.9 billion in share repurchases and dividends in Q3 2025 alone. Management can simultaneously fund balance sheet growth, invest in strategic initiatives like the Center acquisition, and return substantial capital without breaching regulatory constraints.

The dividend policy reinforces confidence in sustainable earnings power. The 17% increase in Q1 2025 represents the 27th consecutive quarter of double-digit card fee growth and supports management's goal of more than doubling the dividend since 2019. With a payout ratio of just 15.72%, the dividend has substantial room for growth, providing a floor for shareholder returns even if spending growth moderates.

The share count reduction of 17% since 2019 further amplifies per-share metrics, showing that capital returns are not just a temporary boost but a structural component of the equity story.

The Center ID Corp acquisition for $590 million in Q2 2025 illustrates how Amex deploys capital to deepen its SME ecosystem. By integrating Center's expense management software with existing platforms like Kabbage, One AP, and Nipendo, Amex creates a comprehensive solution that extends beyond cards into cash flow management and B2B payments. This addresses the threat from fintech competitors like Ramp and Brex, which have made inroads with technology-first expense management. The acquisition suggests Amex recognizes that defending its commercial services segment requires owning the entire workflow, not just the payment mechanism.

Outlook: Guidance and Execution Risk

Management's raised guidance for full-year 2025—revenue growth of 9-10% and EPS of $15.20 to $15.50—assumes a stable macroeconomic environment with peak unemployment around 5.7% for CECL modeling purposes. This outlook embeds a more conservative credit view than the company's actual performance suggests is necessary, creating potential upside if the economy remains resilient. The guidance also incorporates a "bifurcated economy" assumption where Amex's premium customer base continues outperforming broader consumer trends, a thesis supported by stable delinquency rates and strong holiday spending in Q4 2024.

The product refresh cycle creates a predictable cadence of revenue acceleration and deceleration that investors must understand. Card fee growth is expected to moderate through 2025 before inflecting upward in 2026 as benefits from the Q3 2025 Platinum refresh fully flow through the P&L. This pattern implies that quarterly fluctuations in fee growth are tactical, not strategic, and that the multi-year trajectory remains intact. Management's explicit statement that they will not cut technology or refresh investments to hit short-term EPS targets reinforces that this is a long-term compounding story, not a quarterly earnings management exercise.

International expansion represents the largest execution swing factor. With three of the top five international countries growing billed business by 18% or more in Q3 2025, the segment is approaching an inflection point where scale will drive disproportionate profit growth. The risk is that competition in premium cards is "especially heated," with Capital One (COF)'s Venture X making inroads and the Capital One (COF)-Discover (DFS) merger creating a more formidable SME competitor. However, Amex's 25% share of U.S. premium cards versus its low single-digit international share suggests the competitive intensity is lower abroad, providing a clearer path to market share gains.

Risks and Asymmetries: What Could Break the Flywheel

Regulatory risk poses the most direct threat to Amex's premium pricing model. The company's Category III status subjects it to enhanced prudential standards, while antitrust litigation including the $12.5 million Moskowitz verdict and the BR Supermarket settlement create precedent for challenges to anti-steering provisions. Management has warned that "significantly increased merchant steering could have a material adverse effect," which could force Amex to reduce discount rates or increase merchant incentives, compressing the network's profitability. The EU's evolving position on interchange caps for cobrand partners adds international regulatory uncertainty that could limit pricing power in Amex's fastest-growing segment.

Credit quality, while currently best-in-class, remains inherently cyclical. The company's guidance incorporates a 5.7% unemployment peak, and management acknowledges that white-collar unemployment would impact spending more than overall job losses. Amex's affluent customer base, while resilient, is not immune to recession. The concentration in premium consumers creates a different risk profile than mass-market issuers; a downturn that disproportionately hits professional services or financial sectors could accelerate spend declines beyond management's "stable macroeconomic outlook" assumption.

Competitive dynamics in SME technology represent an emerging vulnerability. While Amex has historically dominated commercial cards, fintechs like Ramp and Brex have built integrated expense management platforms that appeal to tech-forward small businesses. The Center acquisition is a defensive response, but it signals that Amex's traditional card-centric model faces disruption from software-first competitors. The risk is that expense management becomes the primary relationship while cards become a commoditized payment mechanism, eroding Amex's pricing power and data advantages in the commercial segment.

Valuation Context: Premium for Quality

Trading at $360.31 per share, American Express commands a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.21 and price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 13.24, representing a discount to payment network peers Visa (V) (P/E 32.36, P/FCF 29.72) and Mastercard (MA) (P/E 34.71, P/FCF 30.16). This valuation gap suggests the market still views Amex as a hybrid lender-network rather than a pure-play payments company, despite the fact that approximately 75% of revenue comes from spend and fees rather than interest income. The company's 33.94% return on equity and 16.14% profit margin exceed Discover (DFS)'s 21.65% margin but trail Visa (V)'s 50.14%, reflecting the different business models.

The enterprise value-to-revenue multiple of 3.65x sits well below Visa (V)'s 16.21x and Mastercard (MA)'s 15.89x, indicating that investors assign a structural discount for credit risk and capital intensity. However, this discount may be unwarranted given Amex's best-in-class credit performance and declining provision rates. The price-to-book ratio of 7.66x, while elevated versus Discover (DFS)'s 2.66x, reflects the intangible value of the brand and network effects that don't appear on the balance sheet. For investors, the key insight is that Amex trades at a discount to open-loop networks while offering superior growth in premium segments and comparable capital returns, creating a potential re-rating opportunity as international expansion reduces the perceived credit risk.

Conclusion: The Flywheel's Next Turn

American Express has engineered a self-reinforcing premium payments flywheel where affluent customer acquisition drives merchant acceptance, which enhances value propositions, which justifies higher fees and deeper engagement. The Q3 2025 results demonstrate this flywheel accelerating, with 11% revenue growth, 19% EPS growth, and record card fee expansion despite macroeconomic uncertainty. The company's strategic focus on product refreshes, international expansion, and SME ecosystem building positions it to compound earnings at mid-teens rates while maintaining best-in-class credit metrics.

The investment thesis hinges on two variables: execution of the international expansion plan and preservation of premium pricing power amid regulatory and competitive pressures. The 14% growth in International Card Services, coupled with just 6% spend share in top markets, suggests a decade-long runway remains intact. Meanwhile, the closed-loop network's data advantages and generational loyalty among Millennial and Gen-Z consumers provide durable defenses against both fintech disruption and traditional network competition. For investors willing to accept the inherent credit cycle risk, American Express offers a rare combination of premium growth, capital returns, and strategic moat expansion that justifies its position as a core holding in the evolving payments landscape.