Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)

Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Direct Model Transformation Creates Near-Term Margin Pain for Long-Term ARR Gains: Evolv's strategic shift from distributor licensing to direct purchase subscription is compressing Q3 2025 product gross margins to 14% (from 95% a year ago) but driving 25% ARR growth to $117.2 million and building a more valuable recurring revenue business that management expects to outpace revenue growth in 2026.

• Legal Overhang Largely Resolved for Minimal Cash Impact: The company has cleared its most significant regulatory and legal risks, with the DOJ closing its investigation in August 2025, the FTC settlement finalized in December 2024, and the securities class action settled for a net $1 million after insurance—removing a major valuation discount that had weighed on the stock since late 2023.

• Profitability Inflection Achieved with Positive Adjusted EBITDA: Q3 2025 marked the third consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA at $5.1 million (12% margin), with management guiding to full-year high single-digit margins and positive cash flow in Q4 2025, signaling the business has reached operational self-sufficiency.

• Technology Moat in AI Weapons Detection Drives Premium Positioning: Evolv's AI-powered Express and eXpedite systems screen over 3 million people daily with approximately 2% false alarm rates in early deployments, offering throughput advantages that traditional metal detectors cannot match in high-volume venues like schools and stadiums.

• Execution Risk on Manufacturing Transition and Scale-Up: The November 2025 partnership with Plexus Corp. (PLXS) to replace Columbia Tech as contract manufacturer introduces near-term working capital headwinds and operational complexity that could pressure margins through 2026 if onboarding costs exceed expectations.

Setting the Scene: From Regulatory Crisis to Business Model Transformation

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2013 as a pioneer in AI-based weapons detection for security screening, but its current investment thesis is defined by events from late 2023 through 2025. The company spent 15 months under the cloud of a Federal Trade Commission inquiry into marketing practices, a Department of Justice investigation, an SEC subpoena, and multiple class action lawsuits. These concurrent crises forced a restatement of financials for fiscal years 2022 and 2023 due to revenue recognition errors and triggered a complete leadership overhaul, with John Kedzierski becoming CEO in December 2024 and Chris Kutsor appointed CFO in April 2025.

This regulatory firestorm, while devastating to the stock at the time, created the conditions for a fundamental business model reset. The company emerged with a clean legal slate—the DOJ formally closed its investigation in August 2025, the FTC settlement imposed no monetary penalties, and the class action settlement will cost only $1 million net of insurance. More importantly, the crisis catalyzed a strategic pivot away from the legacy distributor licensing model toward direct customer relationships that maximize long-term value.

Evolv operates in a security screening market where traditional metal detectors remain the default solution, but AI-powered alternatives are gaining traction in venues where throughput and user experience matter. The company's core offerings—Evolv Express for concealed weapons detection and Evolv eXpedite for autonomous bag screening—address a TAM of hundreds of thousands of entrances across schools, hospitals, sports venues, and entertainment facilities. With current penetration at approximately 8,000 deployed units, the market opportunity remains largely untapped.

The competitive landscape features established players like OSI Systems (OSIS), Leidos (LDOS), and Smiths Group (SMGKF), which dominate airport and government screening with hardware-centric solutions. These competitors benefit from regulatory certifications and long procurement cycles but lack Evolv's AI-driven, touchless approach that enables screening at normal walking speeds. This technological differentiation allows Evolv to command premium pricing in commercial markets where crowd flow is paramount, though it faces pricing pressure from traditional metal detectors in budget-constrained education segments.

Technology, Products, and Strategic Differentiation

Evolv's competitive moat rests on its AI-powered sensor fusion technology that distinguishes threats from benign objects like cell phones and keys while visualizing threat locations for targeted secondary screening. The flagship Evolv Express system screens over 3 million people daily and has detected approximately 500 firearms per day across its customer base. This real-world data continuously improves the AI models, creating a network effect that traditional metal detectors—dumb boxes that beep indiscriminately—cannot replicate.

The Q4 2024 launch of Evolv eXpedite, an autonomous X-ray bag screening solution, extends this advantage into high-clutter environments where layered security is required. Early deployments show approximately 2% alert rates, demonstrating the system's ability to maintain sensitivity while minimizing false alarms that disrupt venue operations. In Q3 2025, eXpedite added 12 new customers, 11 of which also purchased Express systems, validating the cross-sell strategy. A single order for over 100 eXpedite systems in Q3 indicates strong demand from large-scale deployments.

The software layer, Evolv Insights, provides customers with analytics on visitor patterns, throughput volumes, and system performance. This transforms Evolv from a hardware vendor into a data platform, increasing switching costs and enabling upsell opportunities. The Q3 2025 release of Express 9.0 and eXpedite 1.2 software updates further embeds customers into the ecosystem, with features like integrated tablet interfaces and expanded alert tagging that improve operational efficiency.

The Gen2 Express platform upgrade cycle represents a significant revenue driver. Nearly 200 existing customer units were actioned in the first half of 2025, with the vast majority upgrading to Gen2 and resetting four-year subscription terms. This proactive upgrade pattern indicates strong customer satisfaction and expands remaining performance obligations (RPO) without requiring new customer acquisition. The Evolv Flex certified pre-owned program, launched in Q1 2025, repurposes returned Gen1 units for price-sensitive buyers, expanding market reach while maximizing asset utilization.

Financial Performance & Segment Dynamics: Evidence of Strategic Execution

Q3 2025 results provide the first clear evidence that Evolv's business model transformation is working, despite significant margin compression. Total revenue reached $42.9 million, representing 57% year-over-year growth driven by the shift to direct fulfillment. The segment mix reveals the strategic trade-off: product revenue surged to $9.2 million from $1.3 million a year ago, while license fees grew to $2.3 million, reflecting the transition period where both models operate concurrently.

The margin story is one of deliberate sacrifice for long-term gain. Product gross margin collapsed to 14% in Q3 2025 from 95% in Q3 2024, a direct result of recognizing full system costs immediately under the direct purchase model versus the capital-light licensing approach. This creates a $5 million to $10 million revenue deferral from 2026 into future years, as management explicitly acknowledges. However, the unit economics favor direct fulfillment: purchase subscription models generate higher total gross profit dollars, increased cash flow, and higher ARR per unit over the contract term compared to the legacy distribution model.

Subscription revenue grew 27% to $22.7 million, with gross margins at 52% (down from 59% due to $1.9 million in equipment disposal losses and $0.6 million in field service costs for part replacements). Service revenue increased 28% to $7.8 million at 70% gross margin, reflecting the growing installed base of purchased units requiring maintenance. The 90% margin on license fees shows the profitability of the legacy model but also highlights why it's being phased out—license revenue is expected to decline to zero over time as direct product sales replace it.

Annual Recurring Revenue reached $117.2 million in Q3 2025, up 25% year-over-year and 6% sequentially. This metric matters more than total revenue for evaluating the transformation's success. Management expects 2026 to be an inflection point where ARR growth exceeds total revenue growth, projecting at least 20% ARR expansion. The RPO of $299 million provides visibility into future revenue recognition, with the shift to direct fulfillment accelerating recurring revenue recognition over time.

Adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the third consecutive quarter at $5.1 million (12% margin), a dramatic improvement from the $3 million loss in Q3 2024. This profitability inflection reflects both revenue growth and cost discipline, including the January 2025 reduction in force that eliminated 41 positions. Management guides to full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA margins in the high single digits and expects modest margin expansion in 2026 as revenue growth outpaces expense growth.

The balance sheet provides adequate runway for the transformation. With $56.2 million in cash and marketable securities, $28.5 million in outstanding debt, and $45 million in additional available credit, Evolv has sufficient liquidity to fund working capital needs during the manufacturing transition. The MidCap credit facility, secured in July 2025, includes covenants requiring minimum ARR of $106 million (already exceeded at $117.2 million) and minimum liquidity of 50% of outstanding borrowings, which the company comfortably meets.

Outlook, Guidance, and Execution Risk

Management's 2025 guidance raise to $142-145 million (37-40% growth) from initial expectations of $125-130 million reflects stronger-than-expected business momentum. However, they explicitly caution that this includes one-time benefits from legacy fulfillment models. Excluding these items, normalized revenue growth is approximately 30%, still impressive but more sustainable. The guidance for high single-digit adjusted EBITDA margins and positive Q4 cash flow indicates confidence in operational leverage.

The 2026 outlook reveals the full strategic vision. Management projects $160-165 million in revenue, but more importantly, expects ARR to grow at least 20%, outpacing total revenue growth. This is the promised inflection where the direct model's benefits materialize. The company plans to deploy more units in 2026 than in 2025 while maintaining stable average revenue per unit (ARPU), suggesting volume-driven growth rather than price competition.

The shift to direct fulfillment creates a near-term gross margin headwind but delivers higher net present value. As CEO John Kedzierski stated, "It is a trade-off we can now make with the lower Gen2 cost of goods sold." The Gen2 Express system's lower manufacturing costs make the direct model economically viable, while the four-year subscription commitments create predictable cash flows. CFO Chris Kutsor emphasized that direct purchase "simplifies the buying process for channel partners," requiring only one purchase order instead of two, which should accelerate sales cycles over time.

The November 2025 partnership with Plexus Corp. as a non-exclusive contract manufacturer introduces execution risk. While Plexus's 26 facilities and 20,000 employees offer geographic diversification and scalability, the onboarding process may temporarily affect working capital due to dual production activities. Management expects no material near-term liquidity impact, but investors should monitor for manufacturing disruptions or quality issues during the transition away from Columbia Tech.

Risks and Asymmetries: What Could Break the Thesis

The most immediate risk is execution of the manufacturing transition. If Plexus onboarding causes production delays or quality problems, Evolv could miss deployment targets and damage customer relationships. The Q3 2025 recognition of $3 million in one-time inventory and service adjustment costs shows that operational hiccups are already occurring. While management expects these to be temporary, sustained manufacturing issues could erode the margin improvement trajectory.

Customer concentration presents a quantifiable risk. The Gwinnett County Public Schools contract contributed approximately $3 million in Q3 2025 revenue, representing 7% of total quarterly revenue. While this demonstrates Evolv's ability to win large deals, it also creates dependency. The education vertical, which represents a significant portion of the customer base, faces budget pressures as ESSER funding expires. The FTC settlement allowed 5 out of 65 eligible education customers to cancel contracts, impacting only $0.9 million in expected revenue over two years, but this could be a harbinger of tighter school budgets affecting future sales.

Competitive pressure from traditional metal detectors remains acute in price-sensitive segments. As former CEO Peter George noted, "In those very, very price-sensitive schools, they can be tough competition." While Evolv's technology offers superior throughput, budget-constrained districts may opt for cheaper legacy solutions. The competitive landscape hasn't changed fundamentally, but economic pressure on customers could elongate sales cycles and pressure ARPU.

The regulatory environment, while cleared of immediate threats, remains a wildcard. The FTC settlement imposes ongoing compliance and record-keeping obligations. Any future incidents where Evolv's systems fail to detect a weapon could trigger renewed scrutiny. The company's technology screens over 3 billion visitors since launch, and while management cites recent firearm detections in Nashville and Atlanta as validation, a high-profile failure would be devastating.

On the positive side, several asymmetries could drive upside. The Evolv Flex certified pre-owned program could unlock price-sensitive market segments without requiring new hardware production, expanding TAM while maintaining margins. The eXpedite bag screening solution, still in early ramp-up, could become a significant revenue driver as manufacturing scale reduces its current subscale cost structure. The California law mandating automated weapons detection in hospitals by March 2027 creates a regulatory tailwind for healthcare adoption, where Evolv's close rate is reportedly 100%.

Valuation Context: Pricing a Business Model in Transition

At $6.59 per share, Evolv trades at an enterprise value of $1.14 billion, or 8.33 times trailing revenue of $103.9 million. This revenue multiple sits well above established competitors: OSI Systems trades at 2.54 times sales, Leidos at 1.37 times sales, and Smiths Group at approximately 2.8 times sales. The premium reflects Evolv's superior growth trajectory—37-40% projected for 2025 versus mid-single-digit growth for peers—but also embeds execution risk.

The company's gross margin of 53.7% exceeds OSIS's 33.6% and Leidos's 17.6%, demonstrating the value of Evolv's software-enabled model. However, the operating margin of -20.1% and profit margin of -43.8% show the business is still scaling toward profitability. This contrasts sharply with OSIS's 8.7% profit margin and Leidos's 8.1% margin, reflecting the maturity of those businesses.

Balance sheet strength provides a valuation floor. With $56.2 million in cash and $45 million in untapped credit capacity against $28.5 million in debt, Evolv has over two years of runway at current burn rates. The company expects to be cash flow positive in Q4 2025, which would eliminate the primary risk for early-stage growth companies. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.41 is conservative compared to Leidos's 1.06, giving Evolv financial flexibility to invest through the transition.

Key valuation drivers to monitor include: (1) ARR growth rate relative to revenue growth, with the inflection point in 2026 serving as a critical validation of the direct model; (2) gross margin stabilization as eXpedite manufacturing scales and Gen2 costs fully ramp; (3) customer acquisition cost trends as the simplified direct model matures; and (4) net dollar retention rates, which management has not disclosed but are implied in the strong upgrade cycle.

Conclusion: A Transformative Inflection Point with Execution Premium

Evolv Technologies has emerged from a perfect storm of regulatory and legal challenges with a fundamentally improved business model, cleared legal overhang, and achieved profitability. The strategic shift from distributor licensing to direct purchase subscription, while creating near-term margin compression, is building a higher-quality recurring revenue business that management expects to drive ARR growth above 20% in 2026. This transformation coincides with the resolution of existential legal risks for minimal cash cost, removing a major valuation discount.

The company's AI-powered weapons detection technology provides a genuine competitive moat in high-throughput venues, with real-world performance data creating network effects that traditional metal detector manufacturers cannot replicate. The early traction of eXpedite and strong Gen2 upgrade cycle demonstrate customer validation and expand the addressable market beyond entry screening to bag screening.

However, the stock's 8.3x revenue multiple demands flawless execution. The manufacturing transition to Plexus, scaling of the direct sales model, and achievement of positive cash flow in Q4 2025 are all critical milestones that must be hit. Any misstep on these fronts could compress the multiple toward peer levels of 2-3x sales, implying 60-70% downside. Conversely, successful execution that delivers 20%+ ARR growth with expanding margins could justify a premium valuation as the market rewards the recurring revenue model.

For investors, the central thesis hinges on whether Evolv can complete its business model transformation while maintaining growth and achieving the operational efficiency promised by its AI-driven technology. The next two quarters will be decisive in determining whether this inflection point delivers sustained value creation or proves to be another false start in the company's turbulent history.